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While his regular-season ERA came in at 4.46, both SIERA and 圎RA put him in the 3.70-3.80 range. Aaron Nola (30, SP, Phillies): It was below his usual standards, but Nola’s 2023 was hardly bad, especially after factoring in the 2.35 ERA in four postseason starts. Prediction: Six years, $180 million (plus $26.4 million posting fee)ģ. The assumption here is that he’ll be viewed by the majority of teams as the top pitcher available, though the posting fee will cut into his contract the payout to Orix means the team that signs him will be committing another 16-17% on top of his contract. He also just turned 25 in August, and he’s been durable to date. He throws in the mid-90s, his splitter is excellent and both his curve and cutter should be solid major league offerings. 669 mark - but no one else is performing quite like Yamamoto. 241/.309/.354 this year, giving it an OPS slight worse than Oakland’s MLB-worst. Run scoring is well down in Japan - the Pacific League hit. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (25, SP, Japan): Absurdly successful for the Orix Buffaloes, Yamamoto has finished with ERAs of 1.39, 1.68 and 1.16 the last three years. Given that he should return to the mound in 2025 and hopefully contribute there for at least a few more years, he still seems destined for a $500 million deal. That’s also without considering all of the dollars his mere presence brings in. Without the mound work, Ohtani would still be worth a Judge-like contract he’d presumably be plenty helpful in the outfield once his elbow recovers. Ohtani will easily exceed that, even though Tommy John surgery will keep him from pitching next year. At $360 million, Aaron Judge landed the biggest free agent contract and third largest contract overall when he re-upped with the Yankees last winter. Shohei Ohtani (29, SP/DH, Angels): This will be a second straight offseason in which the American League MVP has been free agency’s biggest target. As such, they’re listed from predicted biggest contract to smallest, using my patented adjustments for multiyear deals.ġ. Players are ranked based on how I expect teams will view them, not on how I view them myself. I’m also leaving off Javier Báez, Ross Stripling and Omar Narvaez under the assumption that they’ll be exercising their player options. That group includes Max Muncy, Jorge Polanco, Mex Kepler, José Leclerc and Yan Gomes. Excluded are players whose options are practically certain to be picked up. Welcome to the 2024 edition of the Top 111 Free Agents.
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